Sat, Mar 22, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 216 | 17 | 17 | 07 | 2 | 537 |
| MTL | 06 | 110 | 312 | 01 | 1 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35COLSam MalinskiAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Ross Colton · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 10:09COLRyan LindgrenAssists: Brock Nelson, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 5:24COLMartin NecasPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.24 xG3–0
- P2 5:51MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Jayden Struble, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 3:58COLBrock NelsonAssists: Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 9:24MTLJoshua RoyAssists: Alex Newhook, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 9:54MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 13:32MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 2. COL Charlie Coyle scored
- 3. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 4. COL Valeri Nichushkin stopped
- 5. MTL Patrik Laine scored
- 6. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 7. MTL Christian Dvorak stopped
- 8. COL Brock Nelson scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:06COLRoss Colton: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:46MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 2:46COLKeaton Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:35MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:42COLMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:22COLCharlie Coyle: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:22COLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:22MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:16COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:52MTLMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:52COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:35MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Lehkonen – Necas12:15
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
- Coyle – Colton – Kiviranta8:41
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Vesey – Wood – Drury6:27
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Nichushkin14:55
xG 0.87–1.09 (44%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:35
xG 1.26–0.94 (57%)attempts 20–19goals 1–1
- Toews – Malinski2:22
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Malinski2:42
xG 0.02–0.04 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLaine – Newhook – Roy8:08
xG 0.68–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:41
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Armia – Evans – Heineman8:21
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak10:27
xG 0.23–0.78 (23%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Carrier18:22
xG 1.16–0.96 (55%)attempts 19–17goals 2–0
- Savard – Xhekaj8:28
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Struble – Hutson18:20
xG 0.55–1.25 (30%)attempts 16–29goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).