Sat, Mar 22, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Seattle Kraken 4, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 111 | 19 | 212 | 432 |
| EDM | 110 | 310 | 19 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:30EDMAdam HenriquePPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:49SEAKaapo KakkoPPAssists: Matty Beniers, Jani Nyman · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 3:48EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:01SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Jani Nyman · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 12:31EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Connor Brown, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 18:11EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 5:57SEAAndre BurakovskyAssists: Jared McCann · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 17:43EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENGWGAssists: Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–5
- P3 17:57SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Jared McCann, Vince Dunn · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:38SEAAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:11EDMBrett Kulak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:44EDMAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:48SEAEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:26SEAVince Dunn: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 16:34EDMVasily Podkolzin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:14SEAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wright won the faceoff against Janmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestHayden – Eyssimont – Kartye5:26
xG 1.54–0.17 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – McCann – Tolvanen7:40
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Kakko – Beniers – Nyman13:19
xG 0.60–1.05 (36%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Eberle – Schwartz – Wright12:50
xG 0.36–0.99 (27%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Mahura11:31
xG 0.97–0.33 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans13:20
xG 0.52–0.71 (42%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Larsson – Dunn16:26
xG 0.95–1.17 (45%)attempts 12–25goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Brown – Janmark11:26
xG 1.03–0.54 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin11:15
xG 0.61–0.19 (76%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Ryan – Jones5:32
xG 0.33–0.65 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Hyman7:04
xG 0.04–0.98 (4%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:15
xG 1.05–0.54 (66%)attempts 19–12goals 1–2
- Kulak – Stecher11:06
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nurse – Walman14:58
xG 0.75–1.58 (32%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).