Sun, Mar 23, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 312 | 19 | 08 | 429 |
| CHI | 39 | 316 | 14 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59PHIJamie DrysdaleAssists: Matvei Michkov, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–0
- P1 7:14CHIPatrick MaroonAssists: Nick Foligno, Ilya Mikheyev · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 8:01CHIJoseph VelenoAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 8:13PHITravis SanheimAssists: Travis Konecny, Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P1 11:59PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Noah Cates, Tyson Foerster · Backhand, 0.36 xG3–2
- P1 18:12CHIConnor BedardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 2:37CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Joseph Veleno · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
- P2 6:43CHIRyan DonatoPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Connor Bedard · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–5
- P2 10:14PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–5
- P2 13:27CHIRyan DonatoPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–6
- P3 2:13CHILukas ReichelAssists: Patrick Maroon, Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:57PHIEgor Zamula: Interference2 min
- P2 5:28PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:28PHIMatvei Michkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:23PHITravis Sanheim: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 14:26CHITyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:35CHIEthan Del Mastro: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Nazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster10:30
xG 0.93–0.13 (88%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Tippett – Poehling – Pelletier4:09
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov11:01
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 17–12goals 3–2
- Deslauriers – Abols – Tippett3:44
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale14:24
xG 1.00–0.57 (64%)attempts 16–15goals 3–1
- Sanheim – York16:54
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Zamula – Andrae13:47
xG 0.44–0.67 (39%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Teravainen – Mikheyev10:31
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Maroon – Reichel – Slaggert7:18
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Kurashev – Veleno10:44
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 2–1
- Donato – Nazar – Bedard10:47
xG 0.22–1.23 (15%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Mastro – Levshunov4:11
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Crevier – Kaiser2:09
xG 0.07–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Murphy – Del Mastro13:01
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).