Sun, Mar 23, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 18 | 017 | 132 |
| STL | 29 | 03 | 26 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Jake Neighbours · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:57STLAlexandre TexierPPGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Zachary Bolduc · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 1:04NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 10:30STLJustin FaulkAssists: Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 19:22STLBrayden SchennENAssists: Dylan Holloway, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:17NSHZachary L'Heureux: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:17STLNathan Walker: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:24NSHMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:58NSHJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:58STLPhilip Broberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:58STLAlexey Toropchenko: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:19STLPhilip Broberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:46STLPhilip Broberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:17NSHMichael McCarron: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:17STLNathan Walker: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:33NSHNick Blankenburg: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:33STLZachary Bolduc: Cross checking5 min
- P3 13:33STLZachary Bolduc: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 13:43NSHRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista9:23
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Sissons – Bunting – Bellows3:33
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Smith4:42
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sissons – McCarron – L'Heureux3:47
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Stastney14:44
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Del Gaizo – Barron13:33
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Skjei – Blankenburg13:45
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Neighbours – Bolduc9:10
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:22
xG 0.21–0.40 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Joseph – Texier – Dvorsky8:46
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko8:06
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Broberg15:59
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Fowler – Kessel13:37
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Suter – Tucker12:44
xG 0.07–0.76 (9%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).