Sun, Mar 23, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 215 | 311 | 537 |
| ANA | 06 | 111 | 120 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:59CARMark JankowskiAssists: Tyson Jost, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 13:04ANAAlex KillornAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 14:37CARJordan MartinookAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Logan Stankoven · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 2:32CARTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Jackson Blake, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 16:37ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Jacob Trouba, Olen Zellweger · Poke, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 17:13CARTaylor HallAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jack Roslovic · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 18:02CARTaylor HallENAssists: Jack Roslovic · Backhand, 0.78 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:39CARShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:37ANAFrank Vatrano: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:54CARSean Walker: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:35ANACutter Gauthier: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:57CARShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:36CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Interference2 min
- P3 2:06ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:05CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Jost – Robinson6:21
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Stankoven10:32
xG 1.09–0.90 (55%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Aho – Jarvis – Blake10:34
xG 0.63–0.71 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Hall – Roslovic – Kotkaniemi9:09
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield15:31
xG 0.82–0.66 (55%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker11:09
xG 0.81–0.73 (52%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin13:50
xG 1.16–1.18 (50%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Zegras – Nesterenko – McTavish8:21
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson9:13
xG 0.46–0.55 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry8:55
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason7:29
xG 0.42–0.65 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Zellweger14:31
xG 1.10–0.61 (65%)attempts 19–18goals 2–1
- Trouba – Mintyukov2:22
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe11:01
xG 0.68–0.76 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).