Mon, Mar 24, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 25 | 117 | 02 | 1 | 430 |
| NYI | 217 | 110 | 04 | 02 | 0 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:16NYIPierre EngvallAssists: Adam Boqvist, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 18:41NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Bo Horvat, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 5:31CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Dante Fabbro, Elvis Merzlikins · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 17:13CBJBoone JennerSHAssists: Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 19:12NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mike Reilly, Adam Boqvist · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 12:56CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Kent Johnson stopped
- 2. NYI Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 3. CBJ Adam Fantilli scored
- 4. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:33CBJDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:58CBJJustin Danforth: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:12CBJJames van Riemsdyk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 1:39NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Kunin6:21
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–1goals 0–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov12:38
xG 0.69–0.62 (52%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli11:37
xG 0.33–0.53 (39%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese10:18
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov4:32
xG 0.53–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov11:16
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski2:11
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Horvat – Holmstrom10:40
xG 0.57–0.17 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov9:27
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair13:14
xG 0.91–0.89 (51%)attempts 17–23goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson10:21
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Reilly – Pulock6:04
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock4:21
xG 0.12–0.31 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).