Mon, Mar 24, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 013 | 011 | 032 |
| DAL | 09 | 211 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:01DALWyatt JohnstonPPGWGAssists: Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 15:59DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 19:17DALMason MarchmentENAssists: Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.72 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:24DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:49MINDeclan Chisholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:13DALRoope Hintz: Interference2 min
- P1 19:23MINJared Spurgeon: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:51DALMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min
- P2 14:16MINFrederick Gaudreau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:31MINJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:44DALMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:55MINZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Boldy – Rossi8:05
xG 0.42–0.05 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau3:48
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Gaunce – Shore – Brazeau5:48
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Johansson – Gaudreau6:31
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill6:45
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Merrill – Middleton2:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Merrill2:06
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Robertson8:29
xG 0.93–0.16 (86%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Marchment5:32
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck7:44
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:49
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Harley12:08
xG 0.88–0.49 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Dumba – Harley4:34
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Bichsel2:28
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).