Mon, Mar 24, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Detroit Red Wings 5, Utah Hockey Club 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 12 | 13 | 39 | 514 |
| UTA | 19 | 06 | 04 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley · Slap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 5:08DETElmer SoderblomAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:34DETMarco KasperGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.43 xG2–1
- P3 9:51DETAustin WatsonAssists: Simon Edvinsson · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 17:06DETAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.65 xG4–1
- P3 18:32DETTyler MotteAssists: Craig Smith · Snap, 0.49 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:37DETTyler Motte: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:06DETMoritz Seider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:09UTAJohn Marino: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:25DETAlex DeBrincat: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:18DETElmer Soderblom: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:07DETTyler Motte: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cooley won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Watson – Motte4:40
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Tarasenko – Compher – Soderblom10:51
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Raymond12:25
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper10:39
xG 0.01–0.68 (2%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Johansson10:44
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider16:36
xG 0.31–0.79 (28%)attempts 11–22goals 1–0
- Petry – Edvinsson14:19
xG 0.05–0.82 (6%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – McBain – Doan8:39
xG 0.61–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley9:09
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Maccelli8:57
xG 0.37–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Carcone – Hayton – Guenther7:18
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Durzi10:09
xG 0.56–0.16 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Cole – Marino4:02
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Marino – Sergachev12:45
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).