Tue, Mar 25, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 1, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 15 | 013 | 07 | 125 |
| STL | 214 | 212 | 211 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:07STLJordan KyrouAssists: Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 18:54MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:54STLDylan HollowayGWGAssists: Philip Broberg, Robert Thomas · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 3:21STLRobert ThomasAssists: Philip Broberg, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 9:09STLAlexandre TexierAssists: Cam Fowler, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P3 10:12STLPhilip BrobergAssists: Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 18:02STLZachary BolducPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.19 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:06MTLArber Xhekaj: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:23STLNathan Walker: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:23MTLJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:32STLAlexandre Texier: Holding2 min
- P3 2:56MTLAlex Newhook: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:53MTLArber Xhekaj: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:53STLNathan Walker: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:04STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:33MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:33MTLJosh Anderson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:33MTLArber Xhekaj: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:57
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:50
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman6:23
xG 0.02–0.41 (5%)attempts 2–8goals 0–2
- Laine – Newhook – Roy10:07
xG 0.13–0.66 (16%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson13:05
xG 0.88–0.62 (59%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson2:27
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carrier – Struble3:39
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Neighbours – Bolduc8:37
xG 0.78–0.28 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Texier7:19
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway10:33
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko10:17
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Fowler15:40
xG 0.91–0.35 (72%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Suter – Tucker14:50
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg11:57
xG 0.60–0.33 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).