Tue, Mar 25, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 114 | 313 | 538 |
| MIN | 04 | 010 | 110 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 8:22VGKBrett HowdenGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 1:42MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 14:57VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 16:57VGKTanner PearsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
- P3 17:28VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone, Kaedan Korczak · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (2)
- P2 2:43VGKVictor Olofsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:44MINRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Roy – Dorofeyev13:31
xG 0.99–0.21 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Olofsson11:19
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel13:37
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
- Pearson – Kolesar – Howden11:28
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud18:32
xG 1.23–0.58 (68%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore18:25
xG 0.72–0.60 (55%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Hague – Korczak16:13
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Trenin – Boldy5:40
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Hartman – Trenin6:24
xG 0.21–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Hinostroza – Rossi5:20
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Shore – Brazeau8:47
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Brodin18:53
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Merrill11:52
xG 0.26–0.49 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Middleton – Faber20:57
xG 0.60–1.24 (33%)attempts 13–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).