Tue, Mar 25, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 08 | 17 | 223 |
| COL | 29 | 111 | 28 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:00DETJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 6:44COLCale MakarAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 12:52COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 4:39COLDevon ToewsPPGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 8:34COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 16:53DETAustin WatsonAssists: J.T. Compher, Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.31 xG2–4
- P3 17:56COLLogan O'ConnorENAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:20COLSam Malinski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:06DETCraig Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:31COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:41DETMoritz Seider: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Rasmussen – Raymond13:24
xG 1.06–0.33 (76%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Smith – Watson – Motte6:42
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren12:49
xG 0.50–0.53 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper10:09
xG 0.12–0.82 (13%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider18:42
xG 1.21–0.67 (64%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Johansson – Edvinsson2:01
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lagesson – Johansson11:14
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Colton – Kiviranta10:54
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – O'Connor8:32
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Nelson – Lehkonen – Necas12:16
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Nichushkin13:57
xG 1.11–1.09 (50%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Girard6:53
xG 0.66–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar14:28
xG 1.35–1.12 (55%)attempts 25–11goals 2–0
- Girard – Malinski4:23
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).