Tue, Mar 25, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Seattle Kraken 3, Calgary Flames 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 08 | 212 | 16 | 03 | 329 |
| CGY | 19 | 010 | 214 | 14 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:58CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Kevin Rooney, Daniil Miromanov · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 10:25SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Jared McCann, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 18:42SEATye KartyeAssists: Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 13:42CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 15:49CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Matt Coronato, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 18:30SEAJordan EberleAssists: Matty Beniers, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- OT 3:58CGYNazem KadriGWGAssists: Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:17CGYRyan Lomberg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:04SEABrandon Montour: Interference2 min
- P2 8:44CGYConnor Zary: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:49CGYJoel Hanley: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:01CGYMatt Coronato: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:25SEABrandon Montour: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 15:07SEAMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:07CGYMartin Pospisil: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:07CGYNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:07SEABrandon Montour: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCann won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestHayden – Eyssimont – Kartye3:22
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hayden – Eyssimont – Tolvanen2:14
xG 0.03–0.07 (26%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Wright9:10
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – McCann – Tolvanen8:15
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:33
xG 0.78–0.73 (52%)attempts 16–21goals 1–0
- Montour – Evans14:44
xG 0.45–0.71 (38%)attempts 10–25goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Fleury8:18
xG 0.15–0.55 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Rooney – Klapka4:15
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Coleman – Farabee – Sharangovich9:08
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato9:54
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary11:12
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl12:58
xG 0.72–0.19 (80%)attempts 23–5goals 1–1
- Bean – Miromanov9:10
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Weegar – Hanley14:25
xG 0.53–0.50 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).