Wed, Mar 26, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Vancouver Canucks 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 313 | 27 | 525 |
| NYI | 010 | 211 | 07 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:39VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:35NYICasey CizikasSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 9:00NYITony DeAngeloAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 13:59VANAatu RätyAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Kiefer Sherwood · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 19:37VANDerek ForbortGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 1:05VANTeddy BluegerAssists: Conor Garland, Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 18:08VANKiefer SherwoodENAssists: Pius Suter, Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:35NYIBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:28NYIAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:28VANMarcus Pettersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:20VANQuinn Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:19VANPius Suter: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Sherwood – Räty9:41
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Aman – Lekkerimäki8:41
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Blueger – Garland – O'Connor10:29
xG 0.41–0.36 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Suter12:43
xG 0.44–0.65 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Pettersson13:06
xG 1.12–0.65 (63%)attempts 23–14goals 2–0
- Forbort – Pettersson9:39
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes19:26
xG 0.31–1.18 (21%)attempts 12–28goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Duclair10:53
xG 1.00–0.38 (72%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Cizikas – Fasching – Engvall9:52
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Holmstrom12:28
xG 0.25–0.57 (31%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov9:04
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Pulock10:35
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Pelech – Dobson17:06
xG 0.72–0.69 (51%)attempts 19–19goals 0–2
- DeAngelo – Romanov15:17
xG 0.53–1.00 (35%)attempts 12–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).