Wed, Mar 26, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 15 | 314 | 05 | 424 |
| EDM | 014 | 013 | 317 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:26DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 5:01DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 10:42DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 15:30DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.19 xG4–0
- P3 9:30EDMCorey PerryPPAssists: Jake Walman, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 13:54EDMAdam HenriquePPAssists: Corey Perry, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 18:35EDMZach HymanAssists: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:55DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:47DALMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P1 15:59EDMViktor Arvidsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:32DALJason Robertson: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:33EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:20EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00DALLian Bichsel: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:26DALLian Bichsel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:18DALEvgenii Dadonov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:34DALSam Steel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:34EDMJake Walman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Janmark won the faceoff against Blackwell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:09
xG 0.29–0.41 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Marchment10:57
xG 0.60–0.75 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck5:54
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson8:59
xG 0.25–0.72 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lindell10:43
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley7:03
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Dumba – Bichsel10:13
xG 0.16–0.59 (21%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Ryan – Jones7:01
xG 0.53–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin9:10
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Henrique – Hyman – Kapanen4:39
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Brown – Janmark4:06
xG 0.28–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Nurse4:05
xG 0.74–0.02 (98%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Nurse – Walman8:59
xG 0.77–0.20 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Kulak – Stecher8:27
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).