Thu, Mar 27, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Utah Hockey Club 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 05 | 08 | 012 | 025 |
| TBL | 28 | 410 | 24 | 822 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30TBLJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:20TBLVictor HedmanAssists: J.J. Moser, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 5:05TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 9:14TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Darren Raddysh · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 17:54TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P2 19:36TBLOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.18 xG0–6
- P3 8:59TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Bat, 0.05 xG0–7
- P3 14:54TBLOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Nick Perbix · Snap, 0.09 xG0–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:47UTALogan Cooley: Interference2 min
- P1 11:34TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:34UTAMichael Kesselring: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:16TBLErik Cernak: Holding2 min
- P2 17:48UTAIan Cole: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:47TBLGage Goncalves: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – McBain – Doan10:07
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–1goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton5:00
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Guenther – Cooley5:24
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Hayton – Guenther6:38
xG 0.24–0.32 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Sergachev2:09
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Maatta – Marino4:28
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Durzi11:29
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 17–5goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point12:53
xG 1.12–0.45 (71%)attempts 16–17goals 3–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Goncalves9:17
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Glendening – Gourde – Girgensons4:53
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel12:59
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:47
xG 1.00–0.34 (75%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Hedman – Moser9:26
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg6:03
xG 0.34–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).