Thu, Mar 27, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 4, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 08 | 312 | 430 |
| PHI | 311 | 05 | 314 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 7:55MTLAlex NewhookAssists: David Savard, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 10:13PHINicolas DeslauriersAssists: Olle Lycksell, Rodrigo Abols · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 11:15PHISean CouturierAssists: Matvei Michkov, Jakob Pelletier · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 2:15MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Jayden Struble, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 10:09PHITyson FoersterAssists: Nick Seeler, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 11:43PHISean CouturierPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 13:34MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 13:52PHIMatvei MichkovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–6
- P3 16:47MTLPatrik LaineAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.24 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
- P2 6:59PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:33MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:33PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:33MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:32PHIBobby Brink: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:42MTLJayden Struble: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:14MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:09MTLBrendan Gallagher: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Heineman5:52
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:29
xG 0.60–0.85 (41%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Laine – Newhook – Roy7:07
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 1–2
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:23
xG 0.30–0.65 (32%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson16:15
xG 0.94–0.75 (55%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Savard – Xhekaj7:09
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 9–6goals 1–2
- Matheson – Carrier12:37
xG 0.74–0.92 (45%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster9:46
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov9:08
xG 0.87–0.74 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Deslauriers – Abols – Lycksell6:37
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
- Tippett – Poehling – Pelletier8:32
xG 0.17–0.46 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Andrae5:29
xG 0.45–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 2–1
- Zamula – Drysdale8:12
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Zamula5:35
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).