Thu, Mar 27, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 03 | 17 | 211 | 321 |
| NSH | 26 | 07 | 05 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48NSHFedor SvechkovAssists: Michael Bunting, Andreas Englund · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:16NSHBrady SkjeiPPAssists: Luke Evangelista, Kieffer Bellows · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 10:35STLDylan HollowayAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 11:57STLCam FowlerAssists: Jake Neighbours, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:19STLDylan HollowayGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:31NSHFedor Svechkov: Holding2 min
- P1 8:30STLRyan Suter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:06NSHMarc Del Gaizo: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:29STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:29NSHAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:59STLTyler Tucker: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:14NSHNick Blankenburg: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:49STLJake Neighbours: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Holloway7:28
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko10:02
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Texier5:22
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway3:27
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Tucker12:29
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg16:10
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Leddy – Fowler13:52
xG 0.36–0.37 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista11:01
xG 0.44–0.04 (91%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – L'Heureux – Svechkov2:45
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sissons – Smith – Svechkov4:36
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- McCarron – Bellows – L'Heureux5:30
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Stastney9:25
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Skjei – Barron2:45
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Del Gaizo – Barron14:05
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).