Thu, Mar 27, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 013 | 09 | 230 |
| MIN | 18 | 26 | 17 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:00MINJon MerrillAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:08WSHMatt RoyAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 8:49WSHBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Nic Dowd, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 12:25MINFrederick GaudreauPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 19:51MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Marco Rossi, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 18:39MINFrederick GaudreauENAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:49MINMats Zuccarello: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 15:51WSHJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:46MINJustin Brazeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:02WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime8:40
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Eller – Mangiapane – Raddysh9:12
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas8:24
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael10:14
xG 0.21–0.48 (31%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Fehérváry13:48
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Carlson – Sandin14:37
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun16:37
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Foligno – Hartman11:05
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau10:03
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Boldy – Rossi9:38
xG 0.06–0.30 (18%)attempts 4–19goals 1–1
- Shore – Trenin – Brazeau7:03
xG 0.06–0.42 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber18:31
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Merrill10:19
xG 0.22–0.40 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 2–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin16:11
xG 0.11–0.49 (18%)attempts 7–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).