Thu, Mar 27, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Edmonton Oilers 1, Seattle Kraken 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 012 | 011 | 114 | 137 |
| SEA | 012 | 517 | 18 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:18SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Jared McCann · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 3:24SEAJaden SchwartzGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 10:50SEAJani NymanAssists: Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 11:06SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Jani Nyman · Snap, 0.22 xG0–4
- P2 12:41SEAAndre BurakovskyAssists: Ryker Evans · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–5
- P3 4:59EDMZach HymanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 8:53SEAJared McCannAssists: Michael Eyssimont, Adam Larsson · Bat, 0.10 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:48SEAShane Wright: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:01EDMEvan Bouchard: Interference2 min
- P1 7:15SEAKaapo Kakko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:39EDMMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:03SEAJordan Eberle: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:11SEABrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:40EDMBrett Kulak: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wright won the faceoff against Janmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins2:30
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
- Skinner – Hyman – Janmark3:28
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Hyman3:40
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Brown – Janmark4:29
xG 0.45–0.37 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Walman4:47
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Kulak – Nurse2:24
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nurse – Emberson4:37
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKakko – Beniers – Nyman11:31
xG 0.98–0.59 (62%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
- Burakovsky – McCann – Tolvanen8:16
xG 0.68–0.51 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Wright12:06
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Hayden – Eyssimont – Kartye8:09
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn12:49
xG 1.41–0.36 (79%)attempts 22–18goals 3–0
- Montour – Evans16:40
xG 0.75–0.92 (45%)attempts 14–22goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Mahura14:00
xG 0.10–0.60 (14%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).