Fri, Mar 28, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 14 | 03 | 08 | 115 |
| CAR | 112 | 29 | 14 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Christian Dvorak · Slap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 0:41CARJackson BlakeUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–1
- P2 13:46CARTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Jackson Blake, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 16:10CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jackson Blake · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 19:00CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Jordan Martinook · Bat, 0.83 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:08CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:11CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:38MTLChristian Dvorak: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:05MTLAlexandre Carrier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:30CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:30MTLDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:49MTLLane Hutson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Dvorak10:29
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Evans – Laine – Newhook4:23
xG 0.16–0.08 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman4:42
xG 0.11–0.23 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský15:15
xG 0.33–1.31 (20%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Guhle9:18
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Matheson – Hutson3:42
xG 0.07–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj3:03
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Jarvis – Blake13:17
xG 1.27–0.13 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Robinson – Svechnikov6:08
xG 0.40–0.03 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Roslovic – Kotkaniemi9:13
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Stankoven10:22
xG 0.34–0.44 (43%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin15:15
xG 1.14–0.15 (88%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker13:18
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield16:10
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).