Fri, Mar 28, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New Jersey Devils 0, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 05 | 011 | 024 |
| WPG | 29 | 26 | 04 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58WPGAlex IafalloGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 1:52WPGDavid GustafssonAssists: Morgan Barron, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 15:45WPGAlex IafalloPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 19:18WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:32WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:51WPGColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:05NJDSimon Nemec: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:07WPGDylan DeMelo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Meier – Hischier11:07
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Haula – Bratt – Mercer8:51
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Dowling – Noesen – Cotter9:38
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Tatar – Lazar – Bastian9:49
xG 0.05–0.34 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCholowski – Nemec11:28
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Kovacevic16:13
xG 0.74–0.80 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Dillon – Pesce17:33
xG 0.48–0.84 (36%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Ehlers – Appleton12:16
xG 1.10–0.32 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Tanev – Barron – Gustafsson9:02
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:56
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 7–14goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Perfetti11:55
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:22
xG 1.30–0.63 (67%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Miller – Stanley14:29
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Samberg13:30
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).