Fri, Mar 28, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 29 | 38 | 522 |
| CHI | 16 | 27 | 08 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:15CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Ethan Del Mastro, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 6:41VGKMark StoneAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 7:34VGKVictor OlofssonAssists: William Karlsson, Keegan Kolesar · Snap, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 16:14CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Joseph Veleno, Wyatt Kaiser · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:29CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Connor Bedard · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 2:06VGKVictor OlofssonAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 16:49VGKPavel DorofeyevPPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, William Karlsson · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:16VGKBrett HowdenENAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.53 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:47CHIArtyom Levshunov: Interference2 min
- P2 12:36VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:57CHITeuvo Teravainen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Veleno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Olofsson10:18
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:22
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Howden8:31
xG 0.02–0.17 (12%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Saad – Roy – Dorofeyev8:35
xG 0.04–0.56 (6%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud15:29
xG 0.78–0.57 (58%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Hague – Korczak17:05
xG 0.29–0.41 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore16:41
xG 0.30–0.83 (27%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Mikheyev – Bedard13:18
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Maroon – Kurashev – Reichel7:40
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar9:31
xG 0.52–0.47 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Veleno – Slaggert11:11
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Kaiser15:46
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Del Mastro – Korchinski14:48
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 2–2
- Vlasic – Levshunov14:50
xG 0.64–0.75 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).