Sat, Mar 29, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 03 | 113 | 227 |
| COL | 111 | 07 | 011 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:57STLZachary BolducPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 12:09COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Devon Toews · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 8:54STLPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.33 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:20COLJack Drury: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 15:27STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:27COLRoss Colton: Interference2 min
- P3 5:57COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:26COLSam Malinski: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:38
xG 0.59–0.27 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:54
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc5:42
xG 0.02–0.25 (7%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko7:12
xG 0.04–0.45 (8%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Fowler12:52
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Tucker9:24
xG 0.77–0.81 (49%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Suter – Fowler2:51
xG 0.01–0.08 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Drouin15:24
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 27–6goals 1–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Necas11:38
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Coyle – Wood – Colton6:30
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – O'Connor6:01
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:19
xG 0.88–0.39 (69%)attempts 25–11goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard3:36
xG 0.10–0.00 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lindgren – Girard3:05
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).