Sat, Mar 29, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New Jersey Devils 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 210 | 011 | 312 | 533 |
| MIN | 17 | 012 | 15 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 5:46NJDPaul CotterAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Nolan Foote · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 16:31MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Gustav Nyquist · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:13NJDNico HischierGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 5:22MINRyan HartmanAssists: Marcus Foligno, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 14:50NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 16:46NJDTomas TatarAssists: Ondrej Palat, Justin Dowling · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:56NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:56MINMarcus Foligno: Embellishment2 min
- P2 6:57NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:57MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:57NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:29NJDErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:52MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Bratt – Hischier13:11
xG 0.49–0.19 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Haula – Meier – Mercer8:45
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Sprong – Cotter – Foote3:46
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Tatar – Dowling – Palat9:22
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Kovacevic16:03
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 20–10goals 3–0
- Dillon – Nemec11:36
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hughes13:16
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hartman – Boldy3:26
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Hinostroza – Rossi2:30
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Boldy – Rossi7:04
xG 0.14–0.20 (40%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau10:21
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill11:04
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Faber2:29
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brodin – Middleton2:49
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).