Sat, Mar 29, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 010 | 07 | 39 | 326 |
| LAK | 013 | 114 | 09 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:57LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Phillip Danault · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 0:55TORAuston MatthewsSHAssists: Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 12:04TORJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.34 xG2–1
- P3 18:35TORJohn TavaresENAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.80 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:08TORBrandon Carlo: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:08LAKJeff Malott: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:33TORMax Domi: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:29TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:13LAKTrevor Moore: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:24TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:55LAKAndrei Kuzmenko: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 1:35LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:14TORWilliam Nylander: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:14LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:44LAKDarcy Kuemper: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies11:19
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann10:55
xG 0.62–0.42 (59%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Holmberg6:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Domi7:44
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe10:08
xG 0.78–0.33 (70%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly3:41
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit9:03
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Byfield – Laferriere11:34
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko11:02
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Lewis – Malott – Helenius5:13
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Danault – Foegele – Moore11:06
xG 0.42–0.66 (39%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Spence10:51
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Clarke11:45
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Gavrikov3:00
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).