Sat, Mar 29, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 012 | 17 | 02 | 228 |
| EDM | 07 | 19 | 112 | 11 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Nazem Kadri, Brayden Pachal · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 16:20EDMViktor ArvidssonAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 7:55CGYBrayden PachalAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 16:48EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 2:25EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:15EDMBrett Kulak: Holding2 min
- P1 12:32CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P2 19:17CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:17EDMCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:17EDMKasperi Kapanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:50EDMVasily Podkolzin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Sharangovich11:15
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Lomberg – Rooney – Klapka4:37
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee11:44
xG 0.34–0.60 (37%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato11:17
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Pachal11:12
xG 0.56–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Andersson – Bahl19:14
xG 0.83–0.92 (47%)attempts 24–26goals 0–1
- Weegar – Hanley17:00
xG 0.34–0.90 (28%)attempts 14–24goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin9:43
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Perry – Draisaitl – Kapanen2:49
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins10:54
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark9:49
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Stecher11:42
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Kulak – Bouchard4:35
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kulak – Nurse4:35
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).