Sat, Mar 29, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Rangers 6, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 214 | 18 | 311 | 633 |
| SJS | 05 | 08 | 19 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:04NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Braden Schneider, Urho Vaakanainen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:58NYRArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Will Borgen, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 4:48NYRAdam FoxAssists: Brennan Othmann, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 3:08NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Chris Kreider, Urho Vaakanainen · Snap, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 5:47NYRAdam FoxAssists: J.T. Miller, K'Andre Miller · Backhand, 0.30 xG5–0
- P3 16:53NYRVincent TrocheckSHAssists: J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.19 xG6–0
- P3 17:46SJSCam LundPPAssists: Collin Graf, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:17SJSLucas Carlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:04SJSCollin Graf: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:04NYRBraden Schneider: Holding2 min
- P2 19:45NYRWill Cuylle: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:42SJSTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:10NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:27NYRNicolas Aube-Kubel: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Othmann10:57
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Brodzinski10:04
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Carrick – Aube-Kubel – Berard9:34
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Lafrenière – Cuylle10:00
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Fox16:27
xG 1.00–0.28 (78%)attempts 26–17goals 1–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider13:27
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Borgen – Miller14:07
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Wennberg – Graf11:25
xG 0.32–0.10 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Eklund – Smith – Celebrini11:14
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 0–3
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Ostapchuk8:43
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kostin – Giles – Lund7:30
xG 0.10–0.43 (19%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Mukhamadullin13:07
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 22–10goals 0–2
- Liljegren – Cagnoni3:43
xG 0.09–0.04 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Schuldt – Cagnoni5:32
xG 0.09–0.11 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).