Sat, Mar 29, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Dallas Stars 5, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 06 | 36 | 521 |
| SEA | 112 | 011 | 013 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:27SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Jared McCann, Andre Burakovsky · Bat, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:50DALJason RobertsonAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 18:24DALRoope HintzPPGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 0:28DALMason MarchmentPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 12:56DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Lian Bichsel · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 16:26DALMikko RantanenENAssists: Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.74 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:24DALLian Bichsel: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:02DALThomas Harley: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:49SEARyker Evans: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:29DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 1:40SEAKaapo Kakko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:52SEAMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:52DALLian Bichsel: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:46SEAJani Nyman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:25SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:14SEABrandon Montour: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:14DALMikael Granlund: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Wright
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Hintz – Robertson8:27
xG 0.72–0.26 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Steel – Robertson – Bourque2:01
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Bourque2:37
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:12
xG 0.17–0.50 (26%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Harley4:10
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dumba – Bichsel8:22
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – McCann – Tolvanen6:03
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Wright7:35
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Kakko – Beniers – Nyman7:24
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Eyssimont – Kartye4:17
xG 0.00–0.02 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Mahura9:58
xG 0.78–0.36 (68%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Montour – Dunn2:10
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans14:40
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).