Sun, Mar 30, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 14 | 29 | 423 |
| FLA | 19 | 110 | 07 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03MTLPatrik LainePPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 13:16FLASam ReinhartAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 11:27MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 16:24FLASeth JonesAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evan Rodrigues · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 2:02MTLNick SuzukiGWGAssists: Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 18:16MTLBrendan GallagherENAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:50MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:05FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:47FLATobias Bjornfot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:31MTLKaiden Guhle: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:35MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:35FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:14FLAAnton Lundell: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00FLANiko Mikkola: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00FLANiko Mikkola: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:07
xG 0.80–0.19 (80%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Newhook3:03
xG 0.01–0.03 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta4:33
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak12:08
xG 0.34–0.80 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson15:28
xG 0.85–0.72 (54%)attempts 22–19goals 1–0
- Struble – Hutson2:37
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Struble2:40
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Rodrigues – Sturm8:11
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart11:42
xG 0.98–0.47 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Marchand – Bennett – Samoskevich11:12
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell11:30
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Mikkola14:21
xG 1.15–0.41 (74%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Bjornfot – Balinskis9:15
xG 0.30–0.39 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Jones – Forsling17:38
xG 0.78–0.98 (44%)attempts 23–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).