Sun, Mar 30, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Utah Hockey Club 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 010 | 313 | 28 | 531 |
| CHI | 010 | 212 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:21UTANick DeSimoneAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Kevin Stenlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 11:02CHIJoseph VelenoAssists: Artyom Levshunov, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 14:55CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 16:37UTAMikhail SergachevAssists: John Marino, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 17:08UTAAlexander KerfootGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, John Marino · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 10:57UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: Alexander Kerfoot · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 12:54UTALogan CooleyAssists: Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:18UTAKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:17UTANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:27UTABarrett Hayton: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:05CHIPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:05CHIPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:05UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:00UTANick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stenlund won the faceoff against Veleno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Kerfoot – Stenlund9:11
xG 0.80–0.38 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Schmaltz – Yamamoto – Hayton10:31
xG 0.74–0.34 (69%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Doan9:00
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Keller – Guenther – Cooley10:44
xG 0.50–0.85 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeSimone – Kesselring15:17
xG 1.37–0.37 (79%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Marino – Sergachev14:03
xG 1.17–0.97 (55%)attempts 21–13goals 2–2
- Cole – Durzi12:11
xG 0.73–0.57 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Mikheyev – Bedard10:43
xG 0.88–0.68 (57%)attempts 12–15goals 1–2
- Foligno – Veleno – Moore7:50
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 1–2
- Maroon – Reichel – Slaggert5:45
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar10:09
xG 0.42–0.91 (32%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaiser – Rinzel13:28
xG 1.07–0.50 (68%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Kaiser – Levshunov2:17
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Vlasic3:42
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).