Sun, Mar 30, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 113 | 14 | 323 |
| ANA | 011 | 18 | 112 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:24TORMax DomiAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Scott Laughton · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:29TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 7:50ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Olen Zellweger, Cutter Gauthier · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 2:16ANASam ColangeloPPAssists: Trevor Zegras, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 11:35TORSteven LorentzGWGAssists: David Kampf, Simon Benoit · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:36TORBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:53TORWilliam Nylander: Holding2 min
- P2 1:44ANATrevor Zegras: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:22ANARadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 1:25TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:42TORMatthew Knies: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies11:16
xG 0.86–0.54 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann9:42
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Holmberg5:44
xG 0.16–0.10 (60%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Domi9:12
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe14:28
xG 0.75–0.11 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly3:12
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carlo12:04
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry9:09
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Zegras – Colangelo – McTavish11:16
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Harkins – Lundeström – Nesterenko6:30
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson11:05
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Zellweger12:12
xG 0.70–0.16 (81%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Gudas – LaCombe12:49
xG 0.38–0.70 (35%)attempts 11–16goals 0–3
- Helleson – Mintyukov15:10
xG 0.23–0.68 (25%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).