Mon, Mar 31, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Minnesota Wild 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 010 | 210 | 03 | 0 | 230 |
| NJD | 110 | 012 | 15 | 01 | 2 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:30NJDLuke HughesAssists: Brett Pesce, Justin Dowling · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 2:57MINVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Jake Middleton, Jon Merrill · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 9:12NJDNico HischierAssists: Stefan Noesen, Luke Hughes · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 17:52MINMatt BoldyAssists: Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Paul Cotter scored
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. NJD Jesper Bratt scored
- 4. MIN Matt Boldy stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:10MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P2 1:23NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:14NJDBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min
- P3 10:54MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Hinostroza – Hartman8:02
xG 0.61–0.14 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Boldy – Rossi14:22
xG 0.57–0.23 (72%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau10:17
xG 0.34–0.63 (35%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Shore – Trenin – Brazeau7:06
xG 0.04–0.44 (8%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin18:11
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber18:02
xG 0.63–0.53 (54%)attempts 23–19goals 0–2
- Brodin – Middleton2:07
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Bratt – Hischier14:43
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- Haula – Meier – Mercer10:50
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Lazar – Sprong – Cotter7:06
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Tatar – Dowling – Palat9:20
xG 0.31–0.52 (38%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes16:57
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 22–20goals 2–0
- Dumoulin – Kovacevic15:05
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Hughes2:56
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).