Mon, Mar 31, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Dallas Stars 3, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 215 | 010 | 16 | 331 |
| SEA | 111 | 015 | 010 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 2:34DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment, Mathew Dumba · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 3:19DALWyatt JohnstonGWGAssists: Esa Lindell, Oskar Bäck · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 18:53DALMikael GranlundENAssists: Esa Lindell, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:12DALMason Marchment: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:46SEABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:21SEARyker Evans: Interference2 min
- P2 15:21DALMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P2 17:12DALLian Bichsel: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:52SEABrandon Montour: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Bäck – Bourque3:05
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson11:40
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Blackwell – Bäck4:23
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Marchment12:06
xG 0.64–0.86 (43%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Harley12:57
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Dumba – Bichsel10:34
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Ceci – Bichsel2:34
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Kakko – Beniers11:45
xG 1.35–0.43 (76%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- Eberle – Stephenson – Tolvanen4:29
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Stephenson – Nyman8:25
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Wright7:35
xG 0.09–0.27 (26%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Fleury9:38
xG 1.12–0.22 (84%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans16:59
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn16:30
xG 0.47–1.33 (26%)attempts 17–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).