Tue, Apr 1, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 4, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 06 | 215 | 432 |
| BOS | 04 | 29 | 111 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:32WSHNic DowdSHAssists: Brandon Duhaime · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:43WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 6:05BOSVinni LettieriAssists: Marat Khusnutdinov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 17:12BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Morgan Geekie, Mason Lohrei · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 10:37WSHDylan StromeAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 14:46WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex Ovechkin · Deflected, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 15:13BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Morgan Geekie, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:21WSHDylan McIlrath: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:51BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:58WSHLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:27BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min
- P2 14:39WSHDylan McIlrath: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 14:39BOSJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:25WSHJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Dowd – Duhaime – McMichael8:00
xG 0.35–0.32 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Dubois9:36
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Strome – Protas – Leonard11:01
xG 0.55–0.63 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Beauvillier8:04
xG 0.17–0.37 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry6:13
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- McIlrath – Sandin3:04
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:32
xG 0.26–0.23 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLettieri – Mittelstadt – Khusnutdinov11:24
xG 0.76–0.45 (63%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie12:56
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Lauko – Koepke8:49
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Brown – Viel – Beecher6:35
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Peeke15:21
xG 0.94–0.74 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Lohrei13:06
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Zadorov – Jokiharju16:53
xG 0.19–0.35 (36%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).