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Ice Lab

Tue, Apr 1, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Nashville Predators 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 8

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.

CBJ winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH1132718428
CBJ313413111837

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:15CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:34CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Denton Mateychuk, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 18:10CBJSean MonahanPPAssists: Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
  4. P1 18:34NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Luke Evangelista, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 4:12CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
  6. P2 5:43NSHMichael BuntingAssists: Fedor Svechkov, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
  7. P2 6:26NSHJustin BarronAssists: Jakub Vrana · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
  8. P2 12:00CBJAdam FantilliGWGAssists: Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–5
  9. P2 16:47CBJSean MonahanPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–6
  10. P2 19:41CBJDante FabbroAssists: Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–7
  11. P3 5:23CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Sean Monahan, Dante Fabbro · Slap, 0.10 xG3–8
  12. P3 9:02NSHJordan OesterleAssists: Cole Smith, Michael McCarron · Slap, 0.07 xG4–8
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 17:10NSHAndreas Englund: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  2. P2 15:10NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P2 0:00CBJDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 1:04NSHLuke Evangelista: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 6:23CBJSean Kuraly: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 11:04CBJIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
  7. P3 14:27NSHMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 14:27NSHMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 14:27CBJIvan Provorov: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 16:40CBJDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 17:23NSHFedor Svechkov: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 18:34CBJIvan Provorov: Holding2 min
  13. P3 18:34NSHRyan O'Reilly: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  14. P3 18:34NSHRyan O'Reilly: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 18:34CBJIvan Provorov: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Danforth won the faceoff against McCarron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHCBJ
28Shots on goal37
2.6Expected goals4.1
59Shot attempts62
26Faceoffs won34
4Power plays5
19Penalty minutes17
10Hits22
14Blocked shots12
11Giveaways12
2Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg2:27

    xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  2. McCarron – Smith – L'Heureux2:33

    xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0

  3. Vrana – Smith – Svechkov3:47

    xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1

  4. Stamkos – Forsberg – Bellows2:26

    xG 0.03–0.44 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestOesterle – Barron2:45

    xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0

  2. Oesterle – Stastney2:26

    xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1

  3. Oesterle – Englund4:26

    xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–2

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov9:56

    xG 1.03–0.21 (83%)attempts 16–9goals 3–0

  2. Kuraly – Kunin – Aston-Reese9:57

    xG 0.80–0.23 (78%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1

  3. Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli7:16

    xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 3–1

  4. Olivier – Danforth – Sillinger9:30

    xG 0.26–0.69 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestWerenski – Fabbro14:01

    xG 1.37–0.42 (77%)attempts 20–15goals 3–1

  2. Provorov – Mateychuk13:45

    xG 0.48–0.22 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0

  3. Gudbranson – Severson13:57

    xG 0.92–1.08 (46%)attempts 16–17goals 1–3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 4.1 xGNSH 2.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #188 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.01 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +13 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.

CBJ winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).