Tue, Apr 1, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Edmonton Oilers 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 311 | 05 | 320 |
| VGK | 110 | 04 | 18 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 0:19EDMJake WalmanAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 16:03EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 18:20EDMViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Adam Henrique · Poke, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 2:35VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Kaedan Korczak · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:40EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:08VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:29VGKVictor Olofsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:46VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:20VGKVictor Olofsson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen8:59
xG 0.42–0.30 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins2:22
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin12:51
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Perry – Henrique – Jones5:58
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Bouchard14:57
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Kulak – Nurse4:16
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher11:55
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Olofsson10:53
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Saad – Roy – Dorofeyev10:21
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Howden10:26
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel11:13
xG 0.38–0.59 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud15:10
xG 0.81–0.31 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:54
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Hague – Korczak14:59
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).