Tue, Apr 1, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
San Jose Sharks 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 113 | 014 | 23 | 01 | 0 | 331 |
| ANA | 315 | 04 | 015 | 03 | 1 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Sam Colangelo, Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:28SJSShakir MukhamadullinAssists: Mario Ferraro, Ty Dellandrea · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 8:13ANAJackson LaCombePPAssists: Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 19:01ANASam ColangeloAssists: Mason McTavish, Radko Gudas · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 4:08SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Jack Thompson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 16:46SJSAlexander WennbergAssists: William Eklund · Slap, 0.22 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Trevor Zegras stopped
- 2. SJS Will Smith stopped
- 3. ANA Leo Carlsson stopped
- 4. SJS Macklin Celebrini stopped
- 5. ANA Mason McTavish scored
- 6. SJS Tyler Toffoli stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:01SJSMacklin Celebrini: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:09ANAOlen Zellweger: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 10:55ANADrew Helleson: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:35SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:35ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:14SJSWill Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:39SJSCam Lund: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:03SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Eklund – Graf11:43
xG 1.15–0.35 (77%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Grundstrom – Dellandrea – Lund8:32
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Goodrow – Gregor – Ostapchuk6:07
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Smith – Celebrini16:41
xG 0.48–1.33 (26%)attempts 16–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Thompson2:35
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin12:01
xG 0.73–0.72 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Carlsson – Liljegren15:58
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry12:27
xG 0.78–0.11 (88%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Zegras – Colangelo – McTavish10:10
xG 0.75–0.74 (51%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson10:25
xG 0.45–0.56 (44%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Harkins – Lundeström – Nesterenko8:16
xG 0.00–0.82 (0%)attempts 3–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe18:45
xG 1.15–0.48 (71%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov11:26
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Trouba – Zellweger12:50
xG 0.32–1.35 (19%)attempts 10–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).