Tue, Apr 1, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Winnipeg Jets 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 17 | 06 | 120 |
| LAK | 210 | 18 | 12 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:28LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Joel Edmundson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:50LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 11:40WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Morgan Barron · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:07LAKAndrei KuzmenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 19:05LAKAdrian KempeENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 9:30WPGConnor Hellebuyck: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:00LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:52LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Namestnikov – Perfetti10:27
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Tanev – Barron – Gustafsson7:14
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo15:05
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Lowry – Ehlers – Appleton10:24
xG 0.14–0.24 (38%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:20
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg2:40
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Fleury – Stanley11:37
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Byfield – Laferriere12:01
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Lewis – Malott – Helenius7:31
xG 0.28–0.25 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Danault – Foegele – Moore12:38
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko12:48
xG 0.18–0.69 (21%)attempts 7–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Gavrikov3:03
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson20:26
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Spence12:12
xG 0.17–0.34 (32%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).