Wed, Apr 2, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 08 | 213 | 02 | 2 | 331 |
| CHI | 16 | 18 | 07 | 02 | 1 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:39CHIIlya MikheyevSHAssists: Frank Nazar, Connor Murphy · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 8:17CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Connor Bedard, Ethan Del Mastro · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 9:17COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:49COLMartin NecasAssists: Brock Nelson, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Ryan Donato stopped
- 2. COL Brock Nelson stopped
- 3. CHI Connor Bedard stopped
- 4. COL Nathan MacKinnon scored
- 5. CHI Teuvo Teravainen scored
- 6. COL Artturi Lehkonen scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:17CHINick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:34CHIRyan Donato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:29CHILandon Slaggert: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:27COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:28CHILandon Slaggert: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:41COLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:18COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Nazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin4:32
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Coyle – Colton – Kiviranta4:09
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas8:00
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Nelson – Drouin – Nichushkin3:46
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:16
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Johnson – Middleton7:37
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Johnson – Lindgren2:49
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar6:59
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Maroon – Veleno6:23
xG 0.04–0.22 (16%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Donato – Mikheyev – Bedard9:44
xG 0.11–0.43 (21%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Reichel – Slaggert – Moore6:05
xG 0.00–0.57 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Del Mastro12:28
xG 0.63–0.33 (65%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Kaiser – Levshunov9:50
xG 0.67–0.44 (60%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Del Mastro – Levshunov2:22
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).