Thu, Apr 3, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, St. Louis Blues 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 17 | 213 | 00 | 428 |
| STL | 04 | 310 | 13 | 12 | 519 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32PITBryan RustAssists: Rutger McGroarty · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 0:39STLJake NeighboursAssists: Robert Thomas, Philip Broberg · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:22PITConnor DewarAssists: Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 6:48STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Nathan Walker · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 8:05STLJordan KyrouAssists: Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 5:56STLJake NeighboursAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 11:15PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 19:35PITRutger McGroartyAssists: Ville Koivunen, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–4
- OT 2:12STLRobert ThomasPPGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:19PITVille Koivunen: Holding2 min
- P2 15:00PITErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22PITRyan Shea: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:45STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min · PPG
- OT 1:28PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – McGroarty11:55
xG 0.77–0.44 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Hayes – Acciari – Tomasino6:03
xG 0.06–0.28 (19%)attempts 3–3goals 0–2
- Rakell – Dewar – Koivunen11:10
xG 0.10–0.37 (20%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Heinen – Koppanen – Lizotte7:41
xG 0.20–0.49 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Timmins14:18
xG 0.86–0.26 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Graves – Shea9:41
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Letang – Grzelcyk16:44
xG 0.41–0.84 (33%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Walker – Toropchenko7:41
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours7:07
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway3:31
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Bolduc – Snuggerud6:32
xG 0.02–0.18 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Fowler15:47
xG 1.24–1.11 (53%)attempts 14–21goals 1–1
- Suter – Tucker14:08
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Faulk – Broberg15:53
xG 0.17–0.80 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).