Fri, Apr 4, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 110 | 27 | 05 | 322 |
| WSH | 110 | 19 | 311 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:55CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Landon Slaggert, Frank Nazar · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 0:31CHIFrank NazarAssists: Oliver Moore, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:09WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Connor McMichael, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 7:19CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Landon Slaggert, Oliver Moore · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 3:46WSHDylan StromePPUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–3
- P3 6:13WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 18:24WSHRyan LeonardENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.82 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:21WSHRyan Leonard: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:40CHIFrank Nazar: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:09CHIPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:07CHIConnor Bedard: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Veleno won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar13:11
xG 0.61–0.28 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Donato – Mikheyev – Bedard12:24
xG 0.20–0.53 (28%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Maroon – Veleno7:58
xG 0.20–0.59 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Kurashev – Slaggert – Moore8:24
xG 0.34–0.77 (31%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Rinzel17:36
xG 0.84–0.68 (55%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Murphy – Kaiser2:09
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Korchinski13:21
xG 0.56–0.78 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Duhaime – McMichael5:13
xG 0.70–0.04 (95%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Dubois – Protas – Leonard5:28
xG 0.67–0.13 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael4:06
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas2:58
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry5:30
xG 0.89–0.14 (86%)attempts 18–1goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun17:38
xG 0.58–0.46 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin12:08
xG 0.49–0.54 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).