Fri, Apr 4, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Minnesota Wild 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 19 | 08 | 128 |
| NYI | 04 | 214 | 19 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:42MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 2:18NYICasey CizikasAssists: Noah Dobson, Pierre Engvall · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 4:02NYISimon HolmstromGWGAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 3:36NYINoah DobsonPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:26MINJon Merrill: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:41NYIHudson Fasching: Holding2 min
- P2 11:04NYIBo Horvat: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:49MINYakov Trenin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:37MINGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Boldy – Rossi11:26
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Shore – Trenin – Brazeau5:49
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Shore – Hinostroza – Trenin2:30
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Hinostroza – Hartman7:12
xG 0.44–0.43 (50%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin13:23
xG 0.27–0.06 (82%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber9:18
xG 0.73–0.64 (53%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Faber3:11
xG 0.12–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Fasching – Engvall10:58
xG 0.63–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Pageau – Holmstrom – Tsyplakov11:06
xG 1.02–0.48 (68%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Lee – Horvat11:07
xG 0.83–0.74 (53%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Martin – MacLean – Gatcomb6:57
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Romanov15:28
xG 1.41–0.38 (79%)attempts 31–15goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Dobson10:02
xG 0.62–0.34 (65%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock12:49
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).