Sat, Apr 5, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 0, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 012 | 015 | 039 |
| OTT | 27 | 05 | 110 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:21OTTJake SandersonGWGAssists: Shane Pinto · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:17OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 17:40OTTMatthew HighmoreENAssists: Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.80 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:06OTTDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:37FLACarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:15OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:00FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:29OTTArtem Zub: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:01FLACarter Verhaeghe: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:34OTTRidly Greig: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:34FLANiko Mikkola: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:48FLAUvis Balinskis: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:50FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:50FLAJonah Gadjovich: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:50FLAA.J. Greer: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:50OTTTim Stützle: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Luostarinen – Lundell9:42
xG 0.74–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich6:51
xG 0.69–0.06 (92%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Bennett – Boqvist7:38
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Bennett – Samoskevich3:52
xG 0.14–0.04 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Balinskis8:18
xG 0.39–0.01 (97%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Mikkola12:09
xG 0.57–0.23 (72%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Forsling10:53
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Perron – Gaudette – Crookshank2:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Zetterlund – Stützle7:39
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Highmore – Gaudette – Crookshank4:02
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig8:17
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Sanderson – Zub13:46
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot15:17
xG 0.29–0.74 (28%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo9:54
xG 0.03–0.67 (4%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).