Sat, Apr 5, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 2, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 110 | 010 | 232 |
| VAN | 514 | 06 | 16 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21ANATroy TerryAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:40VANElias PetterssonAssists: Linus Karlsson, Derek Forbort · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 10:46VANFilip HronekAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 11:32VANBrock BoeserPPGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Jonathan Lekkerimäki · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 13:25VANConor GarlandPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–4
- P1 14:10VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
- P2 2:49ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Radko Gudas, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 5:33VANMax SassonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:01ANAAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:56ANADrew Helleson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:06VANPius Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:07VANElias Pettersson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry13:31
xG 0.98–0.52 (65%)attempts 19–9goals 1–2
- Harkins – Lundeström – Nesterenko8:22
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson13:27
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Zegras – Colangelo – McTavish13:29
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe17:26
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 23–15goals 1–1
- Helleson – Mintyukov17:41
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 17–13goals 1–2
- Kylington – Zellweger14:21
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Lekkerimäki – Sasson10:11
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Blueger – DeBrusk – O'Connor9:40
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Boeser – Garland – Suter14:08
xG 0.56–0.87 (39%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Joshua – Sherwood – Räty11:11
xG 0.46–0.81 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Hronek17:23
xG 0.94–0.49 (66%)attempts 16–17goals 3–1
- Forbort – Pettersson13:46
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Forbort – Hughes2:38
xG 0.11–0.20 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).