Sat, Apr 5, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 011 | 014 | 115 | 140 |
| BOS | 210 | 17 | 210 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:49BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:47BOSElias LindholmGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 10:14BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Elias Lindholm, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 1:28BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Morgan Geekie, Elias Lindholm · Bat, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 15:18BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Morgan Geekie, Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–5
- P3 19:05CARJustin RobidasAssists: Scott Morrow, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:10CARShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min
- P1 7:01BOSFabian Lysell: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:51CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Minten won the faceoff against Jankowski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJost – Kotkaniemi – Robidas4:45
xG 0.56–0.08 (87%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Roslovic – Stankoven9:12
xG 1.20–0.99 (55%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Jost – Stankoven – Robidas2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Aho – Jarvis – Blake8:41
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Morrow15:54
xG 1.59–0.39 (80%)attempts 27–5goals 1–0
- Orlov – Walker19:20
xG 0.67–0.86 (44%)attempts 25–14goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:56
xG 0.57–1.90 (23%)attempts 22–18goals 0–5
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie11:57
xG 2.10–0.87 (71%)attempts 18–20goals 5–0
- Lauko – Koepke – Beecher10:50
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
- Zacha – Lettieri – Mittelstadt2:00
xG 0.00–0.17 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Khusnutdinov – Minten9:58
xG 0.03–0.40 (8%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Peeke14:48
xG 1.67–0.26 (86%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Jokiharju18:06
xG 0.64–0.93 (41%)attempts 11–26goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Lohrei14:53
xG 0.32–1.78 (15%)attempts 8–32goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).