Sat, Apr 5, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 08 | 08 | 027 |
| TOR | 18 | 16 | 313 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:03TORNick RobertsonGWGAssists: Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 12:28TORNick RobertsonAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 1:11TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 4:21TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 16:27TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:33TORScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:41CBJSean Kuraly: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:41TORSteven Lorentz: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:25TORMatthew Knies: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:25CBJDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:59TORSimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:59CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:52CBJElvis Merzlikins: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Danforth – Aston-Reese8:04
xG 0.27–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Olivier – Voronkov – Sillinger10:58
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Johnson12:34
xG 0.43–0.72 (37%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Jenner – Fantilli13:02
xG 0.24–0.88 (21%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk12:04
xG 0.49–0.20 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Werenski – Mateychuk2:33
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Fabbro3:22
xG 0.07–0.00 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies11:27
xG 0.75–0.17 (81%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann12:21
xG 0.75–0.27 (74%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Domi8:55
xG 0.08–0.05 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Holmberg – Robertson6:05
xG 0.12–0.19 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Benoit12:56
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Rielly – Carlo16:36
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 18–18goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Myers2:24
xG 0.02–0.01 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).