Sat, Apr 5, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 017 | 28 | 214 | 439 |
| STL | 212 | 24 | 16 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49STLZachary BolducPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 7:41STLJake NeighboursAssists: Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 1:01STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jimmy Snuggerud · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 8:53STLZachary BolducPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 15:32COLRoss ColtonAssists: Logan O'Connor · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 17:45COLMiles WoodAssists: Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 17:42COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Brock Nelson, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 19:29STLRobert ThomasENGWGAssists: Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–5
- P3 19:51COLSam MalinskiAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:31COLJoel Kiviranta: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:42STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P1 14:27STLRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:07STLOskar Sundqvist: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:19COLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:14COLRoss Colton: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Drury – O'Connor5:40
xG 0.55–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin14:53
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Coyle – Wood – Kiviranta6:59
xG 0.27–0.36 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Nelson – Vesey – Colton7:12
xG 0.00–0.11 (3%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Middleton6:39
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Lindgren – Makar4:10
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lindgren – Malinski8:33
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc5:11
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Snuggerud12:03
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko9:50
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Neighbours9:14
xG 0.15–0.74 (17%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Fowler13:45
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Faulk – Broberg16:44
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Suter – Tucker12:17
xG 0.40–0.77 (35%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).