Sat, Apr 5, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 112 | 110 | 09 | 13 | 334 |
| CGY | 07 | 18 | 18 | 00 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:39VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Shea Theodore, Brandon Saad · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 9:57VGKReilly SmithAssists: Shea Theodore, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 19:52CGYJoel HanleyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 0:43CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:31VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Brett Howden · Backhand, 0.01 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:03VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:00CGYNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:22VGKTanner Pearson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:16VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P3 10:30VGKMark Stone: Elbowing2 min
- P3 18:31CGYKevin Bahl: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Olofsson8:27
xG 0.95–0.18 (84%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Saad – Howden – Dorofeyev10:04
xG 0.59–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:35
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy8:17
xG 0.03–0.05 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore16:16
xG 1.05–0.44 (71%)attempts 19–17goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud13:39
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague13:37
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato2:42
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato5:47
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Klapka8:38
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil5:10
xG 0.08–0.41 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bean – Pachal10:22
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanley18:13
xG 0.48–0.70 (41%)attempts 24–12goals 2–0
- Andersson – Bahl16:23
xG 0.34–1.01 (25%)attempts 9–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).