Sat, Apr 5, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Seattle Kraken 5, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 28 | 37 | 07 | 522 |
| SJS | 113 | 05 | 06 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46SEAJared McCannAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 9:26SEAAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Adam Larsson, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 14:18SJSWill SmithAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 7:39SEAChandler StephensonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 11:36SEAJaden SchwartzUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 18:07SEAJared McCannAssists: Shane Wright, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 9:46SEAJohn Hayden: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:22SJSCarl Grundstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:40SEAKaapo Kakko: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:57SJSWill Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:54SJSTimothy Liljegren: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:37SEAAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:56SEAJosh Mahura: Interference2 min
- P3 4:11SJSLucas Carlsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:01SJSTy Dellandrea: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:01SEAChandler Stephenson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:25SJSBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:25SJSWilliam Eklund: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:25SEAEeli Tolvanen: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:25SEAJamie Oleksiak: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:25SJSZack Ostapchuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:25SEAJohn Hayden: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBurakovsky – McCann – Wright6:14
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Hayden – Eyssimont – Tolvanen7:52
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Kakko – Beniers – Nyman7:26
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Stephenson10:57
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Mahura10:45
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Montour – Evans12:51
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:18
xG 0.66–0.49 (57%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Grundstrom – Ostapchuk2:08
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Eklund – Graf11:31
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gregor – Ostapchuk5:03
xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Smith – Celebrini10:52
xG 0.66–0.78 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Thompson10:07
xG 0.52–0.11 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren3:44
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Thrun8:05
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).