Sun, Apr 6, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Washington Capitals 1, New York Islanders 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 19 | 012 | 129 |
| NYI | 25 | 18 | 19 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06NYIBo HorvatAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 9:00NYIMarc GatcombGWGAssists: Kyle MacLean, Alexander Romanov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 7:26WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:26NYIMarc GatcombAssists: Matt Martin, Kyle MacLean · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 4:20NYIJean-Gabriel PageauUnassisted · Poke, 0.28 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:13WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P2 7:00NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:36NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:27WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mangiapane – Raddysh7:19
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime6:41
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – McMichael2:57
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Leonard3:00
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun13:45
xG 0.87–0.56 (61%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry2:28
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry13:46
xG 0.63–0.68 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Holmstrom – Tsyplakov12:12
xG 1.05–0.65 (62%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Horvat13:15
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – Engvall12:07
xG 0.24–0.52 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Martin – MacLean – Gatcomb9:08
xG 0.41–0.72 (36%)attempts 5–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Romanov17:45
xG 1.37–0.69 (66%)attempts 23–17goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:38
xG 0.86–0.87 (50%)attempts 19–18goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Dobson14:53
xG 0.34–0.79 (30%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).